The art of New Year’s predictions is to pick an existing trend from the past year and dress it up as clairvoyance. I’m not one to break with tradition….
1. Firefox will become a mainstream browser. As long ago as April, top blog Boing Boing reported that 38% of its readers were using Firefox. This seems rather extreme. Our own stats show 17%. At any rate, Firefox is catching on at the expense of Microsoft Explorer.
2. More people will jest about Bubble 2.0. Web 2.0 will be exciting but a bit frothy by the end of 2006. We’ve seen Yahoo! snap up some of the best start-ups, Flickr and del.icio.us - probably wise buys. ITV buying Friends united for £175 million was an interesting move. Skype sold for $3 billion or more to eBay was harder to justify. All this action will spur Venture Capitalists to back lots of start-ups with bright software ideas. Some of them will succeed, others will die.
3.As Google becomes more dominant, people will bitch about it more and more. Google will keep on coming out with new free services - and we will see the fruit of their cooperation with Sun Microsystems to distribute Star Office for free.
4. We will increasingly run software straight off the web, and not bother to install it on our computers - like a Wordpress blog, for instance.
5. Take points 1, 2,3 and 4 together, and Microsoft’s world domination starts to look vulnerable. It does already, but people will comment on it more. For years we have depended on Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Office, Internet Explorer, and so forth. Now, who needs them? Firefox is sleek and fast. Star Office is good. And who uses MSN for search? Web 2.0 is death by a 1000 cuts for the old giant.
4. Traditional advertising will continue to die. Nobody believes it anymore. It’s moving online, but people screen banners and pop-ups out of their conscious vision. So advertising will be gradually be replaced with free services. Advertisers won’t think “how can we spend our mega-bucks to get the message out”. They will think, “What can we do for people so that they become engaged with us and become comfortable with us?” Internet Search is the ultimate advertising-service. Amazon is a brilliant service as well as a shop - it provides information and feedback on books and products. Businesses will have to gather and disseminate useful information rather than commercial messages - and blogs, wikis, and podcasts are an ideal way to do this.
5. The blight of Spam is on the way out. Everyone sees through it now, and nobody clicks on a spammed link - do they? Perhaps you have to be into Viagra and online strip poker to know the answer to this question.
6. Newspapers will continue to suffer from the trend to online advertising. Most of them will fail to respond intelligently, but will run around willy-nilly buying up internet companies that they don’t understand. They can’t understand the internet, because it’s driven so much by users, and newspapers have always secretly regarded their readers as lunatics and freaks. Now the freaks have taken over the asylum… no wonder the newspapers are bewildered.
7. The Financial Times will be sold. Its former Editor (Andew Gowers) left his post this year saying that the internet was a big threat to newspapers. No newspaper has spent so much money to so little effect online. They charge for content, but it’s so slow and clunky as to be useless. Meanwhile, everyone checks their share prices and reads the business news on the free internet. You hardly ever see a City commuter carrying the pink broadsheet. So the FT is in more trouble than any other newspaper, and badly needs some enlightened leadership.
8. Podcasting will come of age as the mobile internet becomes more prevalent. Once you have the always-on internet in your pocket, it’s just as easy to tune into a podcast as a radio programme. Your web browser will replace the dial on your radio and the remote on your television.
9. This takes us back to point 1. The web browser will become even more important and even more central to our lives. Your web browser will be the interface through which many every-day applications run - from word processing to radio receiving. Mozilla Firefox, which lends itself to extensions, will become more and more useful, and The Mozilla Foundation, a non-for-profit organisation headed by a trapeze artist will gain immense influence and power at the expense of Microsoft. Opera will do well too, as it is geared into the mobile internet.
10. This year will bring prosperity, happiness and health to all our readers.
Our thanks to our niche following that has put up with our flow of “wisdom” and gibberish, and corrected our worst errors. We know we haven’t been so productive recently, as we’ve turned attention to Storynory, but our New Year’s resolution is to keep posting away on this spot.